Dodd is the most endangered incumbent in the Senate at the moment. He has certain things going for him: he's got a famous name, formidable fundraising ability, and Connecticut is a Democratic-leaning state. On the other hand, he hasn't been battle-tested by a series of tough races, as Simmons has.Caligiuri appears to be a nearly-complete unknown; 82% have no fav/unfav opinion. Even so, Dodd barely breaks 50% against him, 51-30. That means there are a lot of people simply voting against Dodd, and not for his opponent, regardless of who it is. Good for the R's, not so much for Dodd.
This will be the toughest race of Dodd's long career, and he'd better be up for the challenge. He's still slightly favored, but if he doesn't watch out be [sic] could end up like Elizabeth Dole.
Also, Rell retains an approval rating of over 70% and polls pretty well in hypothetical 2012 matchups against Lieberman and either Lamont or Blumenthal.
Coverage can be found at My Left Nutmeg, TPMDC, Hedgehog Report, Swing State Project (who downgraded the race to "Leans Dem"), and The Hill.