Everybody Beats Dodd In Latest Q-Poll

The latest Q poll is out, and despite his seemingly endless repetition of the worn out "all I can do is my job" line and his protestations that he intends to run again, Chris Dodd and Democratic party leaders have some serious thinking to do.

The poll, released this morning, shows Dodd getting crushed in a match-up against Rob Simmons, 34/50, and losing to Sam Caligiuri 37/41 and to Tom Foley 35/43. Pretty incredible since 88 and 80 percent of voters don't even know enough about Caligiuri and Foley to have a favorable/unfavorable opinion. Had the pollsters asked, they probably would have found that the only Republican Dodd could beat was George W. Bush.

It will be interesting to see what part of these results is AIG-induced hysteria and fades away by the next poll, and how much is just voters realizing what they are stuck with for a senator.

Coverage of the results was everywhere and largely harsh. Here's what I got:

• Wall Street Journal
• Hot Air
• Politico
  
• Fox News
• CNN
• MSNBC
• CT Local Politics
• CT News Junkie
  
• American Spectator
  
• AOL News
  
• Swing State Project
• TPM
• 186k
  
• Examiner
  
• Roll Call (subscription required)
• YourPoliticsUSA
  

And from the left (I wade through the muck so you don't have to!):

• D-Kos
  
• MyDD
• HuffPo
  
• My Left Nutmeg
• D-Day
  

Kos Poll Shows Dodd/Simmons Still Tight

Research 2000's poll for Daily Kos shows Dodd up 45-40 on Simmons, with a 4% MOE. While a bit better for Dodd than the last Q poll, it is difficult to compare two different polls with different samples, different questions and different methodologies. In any event, these are still pretty poor numbers for a three decade incumbent. Dodd's favorable/unfavorable is +7 (13 no opinion), while Simmons' is +23 (41 no opinion).

Kos' analysis:

Dodd is the most endangered incumbent in the Senate at the moment. He has certain things going for him: he's got a famous name, formidable fundraising ability, and Connecticut is a Democratic-leaning state. On the other hand, he hasn't been battle-tested by a series of tough races, as Simmons has.

This will be the toughest race of Dodd's long career, and he'd better be up for the challenge. He's still slightly favored, but if he doesn't watch out be [sic] could end up like Elizabeth Dole.

Caligiuri appears to be a nearly-complete unknown; 82% have no fav/unfav opinion. Even so, Dodd barely breaks 50% against him, 51-30. That means there are a lot of people simply voting against Dodd, and not for his opponent, regardless of who it is. Good for the R's, not so much for Dodd.

Also, Rell retains an approval rating of over 70% and polls pretty well in hypothetical 2012 matchups against Lieberman and either Lamont or Blumenthal.

Coverage can be found at My Left Nutmeg, TPMDC, Hedgehog Report, Swing State Project (who downgraded the race to "Leans Dem"), and The Hill.

Another Hat In The Ring? Caligiuri "Strongly Leaning" Towards Challenging Dodd

State Senator Sam Caligiuri will make a final decision in the coming weeks, but as of now he is "strongly leaning towards running" for Chris Dodd's senate seat in 2010. From the Waterbury Republican-American:

Caligiuri said he senses voters in Connecticut are ready to boot Dodd out of office after more than three decades in Congress.

"I thank Senator Dodd for his service to Connecticut, and I appreciate his commitment to public service, but I don't think he is the same Chris Dodd we sent to the Senate nearly 30 years ago, and I think he has forgotten over time that he is there to represent Connecticut," he said.

"There are times when it becomes very clear that change is necessary. Then you have to ask yourself do you think you can bring the right kind of change to the people. I am convinced it is time for a change, and I am convinced if I do decide to run that I can bring the kind of change that Connecticut needs," he said.

I imagine he is waiting a few weeks to see if Rob Simmons is running. I can't picture a scenario where Caligiuri could beat Simmons in a primary. On name recognition alone, Simmons would be so far ahead I doubt if Caligiuri could ever catch up.

Also, did you notice the the last quote from Caligiuri was just a little "Hope" short of an Obama campaign commercial? I guess he figures that "Hope 'n Change" worked so well for O, why not give it a shot.